Andrew Warner makes the same old argument I've been hearing for decades:
Few people can sell their soul so completely just to further their careers – those who do become President.
He then suggests that this is the reason for the Obama boomlet:
Because of this, voters are throwing out the standard question they ask of all politicians. Liberal or Conservative? Those labels are being replaced with two new, far more appropriate categories: Full of crap and politically inexperienced – That's why Obama has a chance.
I have a several reactions to this.
First, Obama is the latest in a long line of American early dark horse candidates, people about whom the electorate knows very little and therefore onto whom they can project their own ideas, biases and positions. Such candidates enjoy the kind of popularity that is a mile wide and an inch deep for a few months. Their approval ratings sink pretty rapidly once the campaign is joined and they are forced to stake out positions that inevitably alienate substantial segments of the population.
Second, we are now suffering through the sixth year of governance by a politically inexperienced leader. I for one am more than ready for a more seasoned and mature occupant of the White House. I think that for every voter who finds Obama's freshness appealing, there is another who finds him insufficiently practiced.
Third, the idea that candidates sell their souls and trim their positions and personality seems to be applied to Democrats more than Republicans. Al Gore was harshly criticized by the media for being too aggressive in his first debate with Bush in 2000. So in the second debate, he nodded and smiled a whole lot and stressed areas where he and Bush agreed. Then, of course, the media pounced, claiming that Gore had no core personality or values, and that by heeding their advice he had demonstrated a lack of spine. Howard Dean screamed his famous scream in 2004, and then after it had been re-run on cable TV for the 4295th time, he contritely submitted to an interview where he admitted that his behavior wasn't very presidential and that he was sorry and would never do it again. In doing so, he lost what was most appealing about him as a candidate. In the same election, John Kerry was successfully painted by the GOP as a flip-flopper (remember the wind-surfing ad?) who would take any position.
One of the biggest framing challenges for the Democrats in 2008 will be how to avoid being once again being defined by the Republicans as a bunch of unprincipled opportunists who will say anything to become president.
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