. . . until the New Hampshire primary.
For at least three decades, Republicans have been far better than Democrats in early polls at getting behind the candidates who end up winning the party's presidential nomination.
Note that Edmund Muskie in 1972, George Wallace in 1976, Ted Kennedy in 1980, Gary Hart in 1988, Mario Cuomo in 1992 and Joe Lieberman in 2004 were early front-runners among Democrats. None won the nomination.
Republicans have picked the early front-runner in seven of the past 10 elections, according to Gallup polling. In the other three elections, Republican incumbents cruised to re-election.
So if history is a guide, Clinton will not be the 2008 Democratic nominee, but Giuliani will get the GOP nod. I'm inclined to believe the former proposition. HRC has all the shallow inevitability of Ed Muskie, the man "everyone knew" would get the Democratic nomination in 1972. Everyone was wrong. On the GOP side, Giuliani may be leading now, but I find it hard to believe that his authoritarian temperment, relatively moderate social views and messy personal life won't torpedo his candidacy once election day is within sight.
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