Framed

Opened Fire

I hope I'm wrong, but I fear that we're going to see more of this kind of story in days to come:

Gunmen opened fire on the Israeli Embassy in the West African nation of Mauritania on Friday morning, a Foreign Ministry spokesman said.

The gunmen fled after government guards fired back, the spokesman said.

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Two witnesses told The Associated Press the shooting was done by a group of men shouting "God is Great!" in Arabic before opening fire about 2 a.m.

The sands of the Maghreb are fertile soil for the growth of Jihadism.  As Reuters notes:

The shooting stoked further fears of an upsurge of Islamic extremist violence in Mauritania, an Islamic Republic which straddles black and Arab Africa. In late December, suspected Mauritanian members of al Qaeda's North African branch killed four French tourists and some soldiers in two separate attacks.

Mauritania, one of only three Arab League members to even have diplomatic relations with Israel, and one of the more democratic countries in the region, is a logical target for those who oppose  enlightenment, democracy and tolerance.  As I've noted before, the U.S. ought to be doing more to support Mauritania now with aid, trade and development.  It's a lot cheaper and a lot less bloody to do that now than to wait until Mauritania (or some other Maghreb country) becomes an al Qaeda haven.

Algiers

Today's coordinated terror bombings in Algeria hear the hallmarks of an al-Qaeda operation.  Assuming that it correct, then once again al-Qaeda has shown that it doesn't care one bit about Muslims, who surely bore the brunt of this mindless murder.

As I've been arguing for some time, the U.S. and other countries should be doing all we can to promote democracy in the Maghreb region, which is likely to be the next front in the battle against radical Islamic terrorism.  This will require a deft diplomatic touch; I hope that our government is up to it.  If people in that region have some stake in and confidence in their governments and societies, will they be willing to step forward to fight the kind of murderous nihilism these attacks represent.   Even as I mourn the victims of the attack today, I hope that this is the moment when it becomes clear to the people of North Africa that al Qaeda does not have their best interests at heart.

Beacon

OK, again: why are we expending such a large amount of human, financial and diplomatic capital trying to turn Iraq into a beacon of tolerance, enlightenment and democracy for the Arab/Muslim world, when we should be promoting those virtues in Mauritania?

As previously noted, Mauritania is in the very region that al Qaeda hopes to expand into, namely, northern Africa.  It has the potential to become the economic engine of the Maghreb.  It has a new and tenuous but nevertheless real democratic government.

Now it's reported that Mauritania is making significant strides toward overcoming the divisions between its various ethnic and religious groups:

Perhaps one of the most striking transformations in the Mauritanian black African situation is the post given to one of their notable figures, Yal Zacharia who was appointed as Interior Minister and who enjoys wide support among these circles. Observers consider him to be the most capable of resolving the exiled Mauritanians in Senegal issue, which the incumbent president has pledged to resolve in a year or less.

The Interior Ministry’s backing of the Mauritanian black African community points towards an important transformation in which they may restore the trust they had lost over the past 20 years when they were prevented from assuming any ministerial post after Ould Taya removed the last black African interior minister in 1986, Anne Amadou Babali [Zacharia], who is the father of the current minister.

*  *  *

Contrary to what some believe, the black African issue in Mauritania seems to be resolving itself; they have representatives in the government and their candidates participate in the country’s elections. This was reflected through the recent presidential elections which served to absorb the former adversity and neutralize an issue that has frequented the media for the past two decades.

Despite all these encouraging signs, the Bush administration seems to take almost no interest in the country.  Given the general level of Bush's diplomatic incompetence, that may be to the good for now.  But as the next President thinks (remember when Presidents actually thought?) about what we would like the world to look like in, say, twenty years, he or she would be well advised to encourage and learn from what is going on in Mauritania.  It is the place where the battle between Islamist and democratic ideologies may be won or lost.

Maghreb

This editorial doesn't mention Mauritania, but it makes the point that al-Qaeda is moving into North Africa.  All the more reason why the U.S. needs to enact policies now that will combat Islamism in the region, not by force of arms, but by the inspiration of ideas and economic growth. 

Peripheral Democracy

This piece, from Middle East Online, caught my attention:

The Mauritanian story is relevant to us in two ways: in the way the military relates to the political regime, and in the way countries that are at the periphery of the Arab regional system are conducting their affairs. Contrary to conventional wisdom in the Arab world, the Mauritanian accomplishment proves that the military can be a force for democracy. Also contrary to conventional wisdom, it seems that peripheral countries can be more progressive in their outlook than core countries.

*  *  *

Before Mauritania, there had only been one case in which the military stepped down voluntarily in favour of a civilian government. That was the case of Siwar Al-Dahab in Sudan. This makes the Mauritanian experience all the more relevant. Indeed, it may turn out to be a harbinger of things to come. I have a feeling that we'll see other cases in which the military would act as an incubator for democracy. My reasons for thinking so are: first, the Arab region is experiencing the kind of uncertainty and despair that may culminate in uncontrollable chaos and instability; second, there is a lack of organised and trustworthy groups that can propose an alternative political vision, rally public support, and conduct a peaceful transition of power; and third, the public is dismayed with the conventional role of the military and hoping for a change that may initiate a process of democratisation.

We have seen how difficult it is to encourage democratic reform in the "core" of the Muslim/Arab world.  Egypt, Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia are no more democratic now then they were ten years ago.  Encouraging change at the periphery seems like a better strategy.

Meanwhile in Mauritania

The elections are over:

Speaking to reporters after winning Mauritania's first "free elections," Sidi Ould Cheikh Abdalahi pledged to "transform" the nation and "build a country that conforms to the norms of justice and economic development." In implicit reference to the early-'90s violence, in which Black Africans were expelled to neighboring Senegal and Mali, he said he would work for democracy "founded on tolerance and acceptance" to "reinforce national unity."

This is a step forward, but doesn't mean the country is about to be transformed into a Madisonian democracy.   Slavery persists in some parts of the country, just as it does in Sudan.  All the more reason why it's a nation that needs our attention and support.

Mauritania

One of the many rationales Emperor W. gave for invading Iraq was that we could transform that country into a beacon of democracy that would shine its light into the darkest corners of the Muslim world.  The idea was sort of a domino theory in reverse; a democratic Iraq would lead to another Islamic democracy, and then another, and another, and so on.  Things haven't quite worked out that way, however.  Egypt is clamping down further on its democracy movement.  Things are as repressive as ever in Saudi Arabia.  The democratic government of Lebanon is tottering under pressure from forces that the U.S. helped to unleash.  The Palestinian Authority is wracked with corruption and internecine violence.

The dominoes-of-democracy idea, however, isn't a bad one.  It's just that in Iraq, it was used as a pretext,  and little more.

For a more genuine possibility of Islamic democracy, the U.S. would do well to encourage Mauritania.  As Sandmonkey says:

It's hard not to get excited over what's going on in Mauritania. I mean, a country that was ruled by a despot for 21 years gets a military coup, that gets done by a group of military officers who chose not to rule the people but hold fair and democratic elections, where not a single one of them or anyone backed by them gets to run, and where they will resign from power and the military after the new government is in place, and this is the middle-east? And they did this totally by themselves, without foreign intervention or pressure? How could you not love that?

Mauritania may seem like a peripheral place to encourage Islamic democracy, but some of its superficial disadvantages may be blessings in disguise.

Yes, it's located far from the Middle East--but that means that it is more insulated from the instability and fanaticism that plague that region.

Yes, it has a majority black population and only a comparatively small  number of ethnic Arabs, but this fact may insulate it from the temptation to insert itself into the troubles of Arab states.

Yes, it is a poor country without much easily-extractable oil, but as many have pointed out, democracy does not grow well in oil-rich sands.

The best theory I ever heard on how to develop third-world economies focuses on import replacement.  The idea is to focus on one segment of the economy that is dominated by imports--say, textiles, or shoes, or cement, or glass--and develop local industries that produce those goods.  This improves the country's balance of trade, trains its managerial class, and provides meaningful employment for the citizenry.  Eventually the country may even become an exporter of what it used to import.  Then  another industrial segment is focused on, and then another, and so on.

Even a fraction of the trillions of dollars that are being spent on our misadventure in Iraq, when invested in a sparsely-populated country like Mauritania, would pay big dividends in the future in terms of  economic and political development of the whole region.  Concentrating our foreign aid on just one or two countries like this could do a lot more for Africa and the Middle East than spreading our dollars out among the dozens of nations that have claims on our compassion.

Given this administration's track record, however, I hope we stay the hell away from Mauritania and allow its fledgling democracy to grow without the kind of American "help" we've given to Iraq.  The next administration, however, would do well to consider Mauritania for the kind of intensive investment, aid and support that could transform its government and economy and start a more plausible line of dominoes tumbling.